Ranking the Commanders’ 2026 schedule by opposing quarterbacks
Strength of schedule offers clues. Quarterback play offers reality. Washington’s path this season features plenty of dangerous arms — and very few gimmes.
Strength of schedule, while an accessible way to gauge an NFL team’s challenges for the upcoming season, is hardly foolproof.
Evaluating opposing starting quarterbacks makes for a steadier barometer.
Every team already knows its upcoming opponents and, therefore, its strength of schedule. Washington’s exact order, dates and times will be revealed Thursday at 8 p.m. ET here on Last Man Standig.
There’s limited consistency in SOS analysis due to the use of different methodologies. Sharp Football pegs Washington as holding the 25th-hardest upcoming schedule, while CBS Sports’ math puts the Commanders firmly in the middle (16th).
The real rub is that gauging a strong/easier schedule by the numbers is based on the previous season’s data. Fans of teams with Washington on their 2024 schedule probably chalked that meeting up as a win. After the Commanders went 12-5 and reached the NFC Championship Game, opposing fan bases in 2025 were surely less enthused about seeing the Burgundy and Gold. That is, until injuries and a dismal defense cratered Washington’s upside.
There’s more to winning than who is operating under center — but teams with a stud at the extraordinarily important position have a much better chance than those still searching.
The Commanders are among the organizations no longer in the quarterback hunt. Jayden Daniels, despite missing 10 games last season because of three separate injuries, remains the primary reason Washington entered 2026 with playoff aspirations instead of existential questions.
With a healthy Daniels, 2026 opponents know Washington won’t be a pushover. By using a similar analysis from the Commanders’ end, there are few easy outs on the QB front this coming season.
I broke down the quarterbacks into five tiers. The top two groups alone account for 10 games on Washington’s schedule. That’s conservatively one more than last year’s pre-season assessment (though the 2025 slate was deeper overall). For 2026, only one team’s QB scenario is bleak enough to put a check in the win column based on the quarterback alone.
Home (H) and away (A) designations are shown below. The Commanders will play at least one home game in London and could potentially stay an extra week to satisfy a road obligation against the Jaguars.
The top tier
These are the passers that are probably giving first-year defensive coordinator Daronte Jones nightmares already.
Rams (H) — Matthew Stafford
Stafford’s MVP award last season, as voted on by the Associated Press, arrived four years after leading Los Angeles to a win in Super Bowl LVI. The Rams arguably possess the league’s best offense as long as the 38-year-old stays healthy.
Bengals (H) — Joe Burrow
The Bengals’ fortunes have gone sideways since losing to the Rams in the Super Bowl, but their passing game remains elite. Burrow, twice a Comeback Player of the Year winner and a top-4 finisher in MVP voting (2021, 2024), still gets to play pitch-and-catch with receiving stars Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
Cowboys (H/A) — Dak Prescott
We can debate whether Prescott has the clutch genes once Dallas reaches the postseason, but the regular-season production is legitimate, as are receivers CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. Two of Prescott’s four Pro Bowl selections have come in the past three seasons, each of which he finished with at least 30 touchdown passes, 4,500 passing yards and a 70 QBR.
Scary passers
Let these guys get rolling and, yikes.
Eagles (H/A) — Jalen Hurts
The 2024 season’s Super Bowl MVP falls shy of the top tier because of a rocky 2025 season and wide receiver uncertainty with Philadelphia’s expected trade of A.J. Brown to the Patriots. Hurts’ arm talent and mobility remain problematic for defenses.
49ers (A) — Brock Purdy
Give as much credit for Purdy’s success to head coach Kyle Shanahan as needed, but the former Mr. Irrelevant has become a viable starter and occasionally much more than that.
Jaguars (A) — Trevor Lawrence
The 2021 No. 1 overall pick played closer to that billing last season than in years past. Lawrence directed Jacksonville to a 13-4 record and set a personal best with 29 touchdown passes. All of that — plus topping 4,000 passing yards for a third time — despite not having Travis Hunter and Jakobi Meyers healthy together consistently.
Seahawks (H) — Sam Darnold
Keep discounting Darnold’s contributions to Seattle’s Super Bowl win or view him as a passing appendage to star WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba if you want. The production now spans multiple stops and offensive systems.
Texans (H) — C.J. Stroud
The 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year hasn’t reached those heights in either of his past two seasons. Stroud has averaged 219 and 217 passing yards per game since leading the league with 273.9 as a first-year Pro Bowler. Houston’s acquisition of RB David Montgomery and help along the offensive line should bolster Stroud’s 2026 outlook.
Mystery Men
When the tug-of-war between a quarterback’s highs and lows puts any outcome on the table.
Vikings (A) — Kyler Murray
There are few better athletes in the league than this undersized quarterback. Murray’s arm talent and shiftiness as a runner provide sincere hope, while the erratic streaks and shaky decision-making led Arizona to cut bait. Resurfacing in Minnesota with offensive-minded head coach Kevin O’Connell and WR Justin Jefferson gives Murray a puncher’s chance at a third Pro Bowl selection.
This isn’t slander toward J.J. McCarthy, but it would be surprising if Murray doesn’t beat out the 2024 first-round pick for the starting job.
Colts (H) — Daniel Jones
Indianapolis understood the assignment: place Jones inside an offensive structure rather than asking the former Giant to carry one. The Colts were tracking toward a playoff berth and possible division title until the quarterback’s December Achilles tear. Jones is expected back for training camp.
This feels like a case where facing him early — before the rust wears off — could benefit Washington.
Breakout hopefuls
Breakout performances are possible this season. Hope they don’t happen on your watch.
Titans (A) — Cam Ward
The Titans’ offense still requires more additions, but Tennessee selecting WR Carnell Tate fourth overall gives Ward, the No. 1 pick in 2025, a promising route runner capable of growing with the young quarterback.
Falcons (H) — Michael Penix Jr. / Tua Tagovailoa
No right-handed throwers allowed in Atlanta’s quarterback competition. The Falcons drafted Penix in the 2024 first round, but under a different regime. While Penix recovers from a torn ACL, Tagovailoa receives all the reps under new head coach and play-caller Kevin Stefanski.
Giants (H/A) — Jaxson Dart
There’s no questioning the second-year quarterback’s moxie. Whether New York’s historically leaky offensive line improves enough to keep Dart upright — and whether WR Malik Nabers is ready for Week 1 after last year’s season-ending ACL tear — remains open for debate.
Replacement level
Cardinals (A) — Jacoby Brissett / Gardner Minshew / Carson Beck
Nothing screams rebuild more than Arizona’s quarterback depth chart. Brissett can put up points in any given week. Consistent production is the rub and there’s minimal evidence from last season’s 3-14 squad that others on the roster will pick up the slack.
There’s also a world where the retooling Cardinals, under first-year head coach Mike LaFleur, pivot to Beck by midseason.
Jayden Daniels avoiding injuries is the first line of fire that must be avoided.
Bengals have gotten off to slower starts than the average team so could an early match-up be a desirable outcome?
Washington is facing the Colts week 4 (October 4th) in London; is that early enough?
Eagles will travel to Washington in Week 8 (November 1st) for Sunday Night Football.
Washington heads to NJ in Week 10 (November 12th) for Thursday Night Football. Praying that Washington's bye week is Week 9 (November 8th) because I abhor those quick turnarounds; I'd rather have a game week 5 after London.
While Washington has improved, so has the rest of the division. Therein lies the rub.